Pitt men’s basketball suffered another loss this past Saturday against Wake Forest and has now lost five of its last seven games. Fortunately for the Panthers, they have a good chance to pick up a win on ESPN’s Big Monday against a Virginia team currently in flux.
Ahead of the season, legendary Virginia head coach Tony Bennett stunningly announced his retirement, and Ron Sanchez took over as interim head coach. This shocked the college basketball world and essentially kickstarted a rebuild in Charlottesville. The results have shown, and the Cavaliers now sit at a 10-12 record — 3-8 in conference play.
After the Wahoos had previously dominated the series, Pitt won the last two matchups against Virginia, including last year when it snapped Virginia’s 23-game home winning streak.
While Tony Bennett is gone, Virginia retains most of the characteristics that made it a great program during his tenure. The ‘Hoos still play the slowest pace in college basketball, meaning they average the fewest amount of possessions. And, of course, they still play the famous pack-line defense and allow the 32nd-fewest points in the nation.
Other great defensive teams like Duke and Wake Forest have given the Panthers struggles throughout the season, and UVA seems no different. However, the pack-line defense’s biggest weakness is defending the three. Since all five defenders are packed within the three-point arc, they are susceptible to moves beyond the line. In last year’s meeting, the Panthers hit 14 threes as a team to pull away from the Cavaliers and may need a similar result to win again.
This season, Pitt is less reliant on the three, so they will need some of their better three-point shooters to step up. Damian Dunn had a big night against Wake Forest, dropping 24 points, nine of which came from behind the arc. This season Dunn is shooting 42.6% from three, and is the X-factor in this game for Pitt.
On the opposite end, Virginia is one of the worst offensive teams in college basketball, scoring 63.3 points per game, which is the 15th worst margin in the country. Junior guard Isaac McKneely and junior forward Elijah Saunders are the only two members of the team who average more than 10 points per game. These two are also dangerous in that they shoot over 40% from three, which has become a weakness for Pitt in recent weeks.
Against Wake Forest, the Panthers allowed a Demon Deacons squad that had shot 28% from three on the season to go for 42%, which dealt a death blow to the team. Against Clemson, the Tigers went 51% from three, which also made the difference between a Pitt victory and defeat.
Pitt needs to improve in its three-point defense, which is currently 176th in the country. In its wins, Pitt stopped the three by aggressively switching and hedging ball screens to prevent open looks. Ball screens are an integral part of the Virginia offense, and Pitt will need to employ an aggressive defense to defend the line.
This game currently sits as a Quad 3 win, which wouldn’t move the needle if Pitt were to win, but would certainly ruin Pitt’s already fading chances at the NCAA tournament if it were to pick up a loss.
While Virginia is a bigger threat than its record indicates, Pitt has had the Wahoos’ number in the past seasons, and a weaker roster should give the Panthers a good opportunity to rebound.
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