After a nail-biting loss to the Tarheels, Pitt men’s basketball must rebound against SMU to salvage any tournament hopes. In non-conference play, the Panthers looked like ACC title contenders, as the program intelligently scheduled tough opponents. By doing so, Pitt gained in metrics like NET, ensuring a computer wouldn’t keep the team out of the tournament again.
Even so, ACC play completely blindsided the Panthers, sending the season into a spiral as the March Madness dreams slip further and further away. Conversely, this time around, NET provides the Panther’s saving grace — the only reason a tournament appearance remains technically possible. They lack any one signature win, but with seven of nine losses coming in Quadrant 1, there is still some wiggle room for end-of-season magic.
Still, for Pitt men’s basketball to go on a run, the play in most areas of the game would require a complete reversal. Looking at overall statistics, the Panthers appear to still stand as an ACC contender — ranking in the top five for points for three-pointers made and top eight in defense in the conference.
But don’t let these numbers fool you. They falsely gas up a mediocre team. When looking at the numbers from strictly ACC play, the Panthers are 12th in scoring, 11th in defense and 10th in three-pointers made in a conference with only 18 teams.
From the numbers, this appears as the team’s identity — painfully mid. However, starting with an all-important Quad 1 matchup in Dallas, only the Panthers can prove the doubters wrong. So how can the Panthers return to their non-conference form?
Panthers need to focus on rebounding
For the Blue and Gold to stand a chance against the Mustangs, they must play with desperation on the glass. SMU ranks an impressive second in combined rebounds and offensive rebounds in conference play. On the other hand, Pitt places in the bottom three in all rebounding statistics.
In a practically must-win match, the Panthers need more from their bigs. Junior forwards Cameron Cohren and Guillermo Diaz Graham average 5.3 and 4.9 rebounds, respectively. Standing at 6-foot-10 and 7 feet, both possess the physical traits to far outperform their current pace, especially on the offensive boards.
SMU senior forward Matt Cross averages 8.7 boards and 7-foot-2 first-year forward Samet Yiğitoğlu averages 6.6. Improving on the glass takes the whole team, but improved individual performances from Pitt’s forwards could prove crucial against SMU.
Defending and shooting beyond the arc
During Pitt’s three-game skid, its 3-point shooting and defense regressed significantly. Once again, the Panthers’ weakness becomes the Mustangs’ strength. In conference play, SMU ranks first in 3-point percentage, shooting an impressive 39.1% from behind the arc. SMU also ranks top five in defending the three ball, while Pitt places bottom five.
In a true challenge for Pitt, the entire team must commit to defending the three. Despite impressive individual efforts from senior forward Zack Austin, mental lapses on the defensive end appear common. If the Panthers want to earn their second Quad 1 victory, they need to lock in when locking down the Mustangs.
Jaland Lowe needs to step up
Undeniably the most talented player on the roster, Jaland Lowe will take Pitt men’s basketball as far as the sophomore guard can go. An NBA prospect, Lowe leads the team in points and has over double the assists of the next-highest Panther, with 123.
Even so, Pitt needs more from Lowe, especially in crunch time. Lowe leads the Panthers in 3-point attempts while ranking last among volume 3-point shooters at 28.1%. Regardless of the pressure of leading the Panthers, Lowe must trust his teammates and kick the ball out to far more efficient shooters with the likes of Austin, junior forward Jorge Diaz Graham or first-year guard Brandin Cummings.
The same applies to closing out games. Too many times Lowe runs an iso play late in the game, and forces up a tough shot — wasting crucial possessions. Head coach Jeff Capel needs to involve the entire team in these end-of-game scenarios for the Panthers to improve. Lowe still has a clutch gene on occasion, but nevertheless, Pitt’s reliance on him has become far too predictable
The Panthers face the Mustangs in Dallas on Tuesday, Feb. 11 with the first tip scheduled for 9 p.m. Fans can catch the action on the road on the ACCNX.
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