2025 NHL Draft: Mock draft szn has begun

When you’re in last place, it’s never too early to turn to mock drafts

Mock drafts by their very nature don’t hold a ton of value, but when mired in last place it’s never too early to look ahead for brighter days.

The 2025 NHL draft has been characterized, perhaps misunderstandingly, as a weak draft, as if it was heard once or twice and is now repeated as a fact on the internet. To be sure, there is no Sidney Crosby/Connor McDavid/Auston Matthews type of franchise-changing first overall pick that is an obvious future contender for Rocket Richard and Art Ross trophies and there are certain weaknesses perceived in this draft.

Bob McKenzie at TSN had some thoughts from scouts in his January mid-season rankings that give the lay of the land a little better. The overall depth of the draft as a whole is not seen as impressive, but that does not mean there isn’t talent — particularly at the top of the draft.

Like pretty much every year, the scouts are enamored of the 2025 crop of talent available in the top 10. Actually, make that the top 15. Beyond that, though, the consensus seems to be that the class of 2025 lacks depth of talent.

“As good as the top guys are this year,” one scout said, “I’d be surprised if anyone from this draft plays in the NHL next season.”

“Nos. 1 to 8 are quite strong, but there’s a bit of a drop off after eight and then again a bigger drop off between 15 and 20,” said another scout.

One scout went so far as to say a lot of the players who will be drafted in the bottom half of the first round would in prior years be better suited to being second-round picks.

“It’s all relative of course,” the scout said, “but I’d say the second rounders this year would be third rounders in previous years where there was greater depth.”

In more detail, several in the scouting community really like the top-four prospects, then have a drop at that point before another drop after the eighth pick, as mentioned above.

The best case for the Pens for the draft would be to lock in a top-four pick. Matthew Schaefer is projecting as a potential No. 1 defenseman who has risen by most estimations to be the top overall pick. Forwards James Hagens, Michael Misa and Porter Martone round out the very top of the class, the order for No’s 2-4 varying in just about every combination possible depending on which day and which source you ask. Still, if a team has a top-four pick, they’re probably spending it on one of those four players in whatever order still to be determined.

The next level of the No. 5-8 picks are forwards Anton Frundell, Caleb Desnoyers, Roger McQueen and Victor Eklund. You’ll seldom see any of these players sliding below that point before the draft opens up to the next level of prospects.

The takeaway for an extremely forward-looking Penguin fan is that you probably want Pittsburgh to get top-four pick this year. If not, a top-8 pick still should make for adding great prospect, albeit one with more questions.

With that in mind, as of now, the Pens’ spot is 6th according to Tankathon. That number will fluctuate based on end of season results and, of course, has to be shaken out by a draft lottery that often does not seed teams exactly to their draft pick. There would be a 7.5% chance today that Pittsburgh would win the lottery draft and move up to No. 1. However, there’s a 23% chance that a team in the 8-11 slot wins the draft and Pittsburgh moves down to pick No. 7.

The drop in quality of players available between 15-20 picks referenced above is worth remembering for the Rangers’ first round pick. A loss last night dipped the NYR pick back to the 12th draft slot today, which puts them in position to hang onto the pick. If they pull things together and manage to qualify for the playoffs there pick will be 17+ and be more of a projection pick and less of a sure thing.

It’s nothing that can be controlled, but a little something to keep in mind. The best case for the Pens remains that the Rangers finish with as close to the 14th pick as possible (the highest spot where they would transfer it), if they don’t go on a losing streak and end up keeping it themselves with a high pick so that Pittsburgh can get an unprotected 2026 first rounder next year.

That exposition preamble out of the way, here’s one recent mock draft to consider.

6. Pittsburgh Penguins: Caleb Desnoyers, C (Moncton Wildcats, QMJHL)

The Penguins need any depth they can get – and after moving Brayden Yager in the Rutger McGroarty [trade], snagging Desnoyers will help bolster their center position. I like his physical play, even though he’s not huge. I think he’s a great playmaker and he’s one of the smarter centers in this draft. He might not be the flashiest, but at the very least, Desnoyers is going to be a middle-six center because he does so many great things away from the puck. Desnoyers is a guy you can [win] with – something Hockey Canada knows quite well after watching him win at the U-17 and U-18 level already.

McKenzie’s writeup on Desnoyers, also his sixth overall prospect in the January update, went like this:

No. 6: Caleb Desnoyers. The Moncton Wildcat is viewed as perhaps the most complete two-way centre in the draft who projects in the NHL as a second-line centre or, worst case scenario, an elite third-line shutdown centre.

“Think a Phil Danault-style player,” said one scout.

Desnoyers was ranked as high as No. 5 by one scout and no lower than No. 10. He’s viewed as a safe and secure pick. If you believe his offence will pop at the pro level, he’s a top five consideration.

Obviously with the season results still pending, nothing is set in stone until the lottery results are known but that is the type of prospect that Pittsburgh will need to heavily scout in order to figure out if they want to bank on his offensive potential at the next level.

Here was the Rangers’ pick, based on it being in the 15th spot as it was days ago:

15. Pittsburgh Penguins (via New York Rangers): Blake Fiddler, RHD (Edmonton Oil Kings, WHL)

The Penguins have a weak pipeline, with Harrison Brunicke being the team’s most intriguing defenseman. So I could see them looking for a safe pick in Fiddler, who has emerged as one of the top blueliners in this class., Standing tall at 6-foo-4, he is a big-bodied defender who clears forwards away from his net and pushes opponents to the perimeter. Fiddler is averaging around 22 minutes a night this year and already looks good with the puck.

Mock drafts will take more shape in a month when the standings are locked in and later when the draft is set, so consider this a very early look at how the class is shaping up and what the picture could develop in.

The good news for Pittsburgh is that their tough season on the ice is trending to lead to their best draft pick since 2012 (Derrick Pouliot, eighth overall) and maybe even 2006 (Jordan Staal at second overall). The franchise has only had two top-10 picks in going on the last 20 drafts but that is about to change. As such, pre-scouting the top names of the draft is already becoming more important in Pittsburgh than it has been in a long, long time.