He has also played extremely well so far for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Like most general managers and executives across professional sports, Kyle Dubas has shown a tendency to acquire players that he is comfortable with, likes and ultimately trusts from his previous organizations.
When he was in Toronto, there was a very obvious pipeline between the Soo Greyhounds and the Maple Leafs.
Now that he is running the Pittsburgh Penguins, that same pipeline exists from Toronto.
In less than two years running the Penguins he has already acquired several players from his time in Toronto, including minor league defenseman Filip Kral, NHL forwards Michael Bunting and Noel Acciari, and most recently defenseman Conor Timmins (forward Connor Dewar was also in that trade, but Dubas and Dewar did not overlap together in Toronto — Timmins, meanwhile has both the Soo Greyhound AND Maple Leafs connection, which is like …. a double-win for Dubas).
The results so far have been mixed, but trending toward positive.
Bunting gave the Penguins a year of solid play and was flipped for forward Tommy Novak and two future draft picks (through Luke Schenn).
Acciari, even if unspectacular, has logged depth minutes and killed penalties, while Kral has posted solid numbers in the AHL.
Timmins has only played a handful of games with the Penguins, but the early returns have been difficult to miss.
He’s been kind of good.
Really good, actually.
I am not even just talking about the production that has seen him tally three points in his first four games.
I type this while simultaneously smashing the “SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT” button, but in his first four games the Penguins have outscored teams by a 6-0 margin with him on the ice, and also own a 65 percent expected goals share which is by a wide margin the highest mark on the Penguins over that stretch of games. The Penguins, as a team, have only managed a 40 percent expected goal share during that time.
While I do not expect him to keep playing at this level and producing numbers quite at that level, I am very much intrigued by him as a player and adding him into the organization because there is a lot to like about him.
Aside from having the size and strength that coaches love on their defense, he’s also shown flashes of being a productive player in his limited NHL career both offensively and defensively.
Let’s consider some numbers, all via Natural Stat Trick:
- Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Timmins 1.09 points per 60 minutes ranks 33rd out of 243 NHL defensemen that have logged at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 ice-time. He is sandwiched immediately between big-money defensemen Damon Severson (32nd) and Brandon Montour (34th), and ahead of players like Noah Hanifin, John Carlson, Mackenzie Weegar, Morgan Rielly, Marcus Pettersson, Hampus Lindholm and Jaccob Slavin. That is not to say he is better than any of those players, but it does at least illustrate that he is capable of producing at a very respectable NHL level.
- His 55 percent expected goals share over that same time period is even more impressive, placing him 17th among that same group of 243 defensemen. He is 26th in scoring chance share (54 percent) while his 56 percent high-danger scoring chance share is 14th out of that group. In other words, when he is on the ice, his team is significantly out-chancing its opponents, and that has remained consistent whether it was with Arizona, Toronto or in his brief sampling here in Pittsburgh. It has also remained consistent no matter who his defensive partner has been, or what his offensive zone start numbers look like. Objectively speaking, the play moves in the right direction with him on the ice.
- From a defensive impact, he ranks 23rd in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.30), 44th in scoring chances against per 60 minutes (25.1), 73rd in high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes (10.59) and 35th in actual goals against per 60 minutes (2.11).
Even considering the small sample size (he is 207th out of those 243 defenders in terms of total minutes played) those are still impressive numbers.
Again, he has made the most of his opportunities and been a positive contributor. That is all you can ask for, and he has certainly earned a more meaningful look with a bigger role. The Penguins are in a good position to give him that look and see what he can do with it.
I am not going to sit here and pretend the Penguins stumbled upon a future Norris Trophy winner or emerging top-pairing defender, but it is still an intriguing addition. Perhaps the most likely — and most reasonable — expectation is that they got a solid No. 4, 5 or 6 defender with team control beyond this season that can play at a cheap price under the salary cap.
There is value in that. Especially when the cost of every player in the league is going to skyrocket on the open market in future offseasons due to the rising salary cap.
It is at least worth a look to acquire a player like Timmins when the opportunity presents itself, especially when you are in the Penguins current position and looking to rebuild or re-tool your organization. You need depth. You need good players.
It also only cost them a fifth-round draft pick to take the chance. Part of the reason you stockpile 30 draft picks over a three-year window is not just so you can take more swings at hitting a home run in the draft, but so that you can also flip the occasional pick to take a flier on a younger player like Philip Tomasino or Conor Timmins to see if you can catch lightning in a bottle and get somebody that can help you.
Seeing what he does with his minutes the rest of the season will be one of the things to watch for over the next month. The early returns are promising.