Monday Standings: Jockeying for draft pick positioning in the last 10 days of the season

The Penguins may have one or two first round picks in June, depending on how the Rangers do

The Penguins were officially eliminated from the playoffs yesterday, a mere formality since they have been outside of the hunt for much of the season and there are now only 10 days and four games left in their 2024-25 season. With that piece of business wrapped up, focus can now shift to the 2025 first round.

There’s been an interesting development at the bottom of the NHL standings lately, the Buffalo Sabres have been heating up. They’re on a four-game winning streak that has moved them up the board recently. Here’s the current look at the draft lottery odds via Tankathon.

The Pens are likely settling in a range between the 6th and 9th pick prior to the draft lottery that will set the first round, depending on how they and the other teams perform in these final few games. That’s a pretty good place to be since most draft observers tend to see four very good prospects then a drop and then a second high level of four more players. Teams that end up in the top-8 are well-positioned to add a quality prospect and Pittsburgh finds themselves right in that range with 10 days to go.

There’s another angle to draft pick watching this year, courtesy of the first round pick of the New York Rangers. The Rangers made the pick top-13 protected when they traded it to Vancouver and the Canucks traded that pick for Marcus Pettersson to have it end up in Pittsburgh.

The Rangers have stumbled every chance along the way and they are running out of runway. In fact, at this point, their playoff chances are about cooked following another loss yesterday. Montreal currently sits in the final playoff position a commanding six points ahead of NYR, courtesy of a very timely five-game winning streak that the Canadiens are riding (NYR does have one game in hand). With only a few games left, by all likelihood the Rangers are not going to make the playoffs barring a very dramatic and low-percentage reversal of fortunes for themselves and a collapse by MTL. Montreal’s current “magic number” is down to just four points — any combination of those points gained by the Habs or lost by the Rangers will cinch up their playoff spot, which could happen as soon as tomorrow night.

That adds up to make these last couple days of the season very interesting for how NYR handles the last few games, particularly when they are officially eliminated and find themselves with a few meaningless games to play out. The Rangers have been far from stable this season, it wouldn’t be that surprising if they slump away in the final few games. Mathematically it’s not a stretch to envision them ending up as low as the 10th-12th range of draft spots if disappointment from failing to make the playoffs leads to a malaise.

Another interesting angle is the conditions on the trade the Rangers made. Kyle Dubas confirmed at his post-trade deadline press conference that NYR gets to decide if they have a top-13 pick if they want to transfer that pick or keep it. They would then have to give up their 2026 first round pick with no ability for protecting it, should they decide to keep their pick this year.

That, of course, puts Pittsburgh in an intriguing spot. While it’s possible that if the Rangers get the 12th or 13th pick that they may voluntarily select to send it away this year, let’s also remember that they negotiated top-13 protection seemingly for a reason. There’s also the fact that by operational nature that teams don’t tend to give up a pick if they don’t have to. All logic points to a team with the ability to keep a pick deciding to do just that.

Should the Pens expect NYR to transfer them the pick if the Rangers don’t have to? Probably not. But it is not an absolute known fact at this point either. Further, per Dubas, the Rangers don’t have to make their announcement of what course they are going to take until 48 hours before the draft, even though one would think that NYR GM Chris Drury will probably tip his hand and indicate his plans prior to that point. Surely the Rangers would be waiting for May’s lottery draft to see what happens so if in the low percentage chance that a top-13 NYR pick wins the lottery and moves up 10 places it would be an obvious end result for the Rangers to keep what would be a top-3 pick this year.

This all creates a situation where a lot is still up for grabs in terms of first round jockeying at this point. It’s possible the Rangers don’t punt at the season and end up fitting into the 14th or 15th pick, which would transfer to the Penguins automatically. It’s possible (perhaps likely) the Rangers slide end up in the 10-13 range and keep it for themselves. It’s possible, though logically unlikely that NYR ends up in that zone and takes their medicine early to retain their 2026 pick. Plenty of options remain on the table.

Either way, it’s a favorable position for Pittsburgh. They will at least have one top-10 pick in the upcoming draft and very possibly could have two in the top-15, depending on how things shake out.