Could this be, could this be the game that the NHL’s all-time goal scorer record is broken? If that doesn’t get you into today’s edition of NHL Predictions, we don’t know what will. Today, like every day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Washington Capitals. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Washington Capitals
Head-to-Head: Islanders 0-1 Capitals
Time: 12:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: TNT, TruTv, MAX
This matchup in our NHL Predictions features two Metropolitan Division rivals going head-to-head. Both of these teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum in the standings this season. The Islanders towards the bottom of the division in sixth place after 75 games. Their record sits at 33-32-10 which has them at 76 points, five points out of a wild card spot. The Capitals, on the other hand, are riding high in first place in the division and the second-best team in the entire league through 76 games. Their record stands at 49-18-9 good for 107 points, their playoff spot and home ice throughout the playoffs both locked up already. This is just the second of three matchups between these teams this season. The Capitals won the only meeting so far back on Nov. 29th inside Capital One Arena in Washington 5-4 in overtime. This potential history making meeting will take place on Long Island inside UBS Arena.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders coming into this game, they finally snapped a six-game losing streak in their last outing. That came in the form of a 3-1 win against the Minnesota Wild. However, this win likely changes nothing about their chances to make the Wild Card as they still sit five points behind and have four teams to jump to make it. They have been far too inconsistent with their play at multiple times during the year. This has especially been the case offensively where the team ranks 25th in the league in goals with 2.72 per game. The team point leader is Bo Horvat and he only has 52 points in 74 games. That shows just how much of a barren offensive team this is. The injury to Mathew Barzal only highlighted that problem more and losing him was just something they could never overcome.
When your offence doesn’t produce it puts a lot of added pressure on your defence. This has been the area of “strength” for this team if you can even call it that. They rank 19th in the league in goals against with 3.04 per game. They snapped a streak of six games where they allowed four goals or more in their last game. In that effort Ilya Sorokin snapped his four-game losing streak in one of his best games in the last two months. His resent struggles have sunk the team’s playoff chances. However, it was his efforts that had the team in contention even after they sold at the deadline and clearly did not belong in that conversation. His season long numbers are still good despite everything. He holds a 28-23-6 record with a .905 save percentage and 2.76 goals against.
The Capitals Story
The Capitals have been the opposite of their opponent as they have been riding high all season. They come into this game fresh off a 5-3 win over the Chicago Blackhawks. In this game the great eight Alex Ovechkin scored his 40th and 41st goals of the season to bring him into a tie with Wayne Gretzky for the all-time goal record. He has crossed the 40-goal mark for the 14th time in his 20-year career. His brilliance has helped his team have the number one ranked offence in the league with 3.62 goals per game. Dylan Strome deserves his praise too as he leads the team in points with 75 points in 76 games. He is having a career year and has two goals and five assists over his last four games. However, in this game all eyes will be on Ovechkin as he sits on the doorstep of history. His next goal will give him sole possession of that goal record and further cement his hall of fame legacy.
Defensively the Capitals are one of the leagues better teams as well. To go along with their number one ranked offence, they have the eighth ranked defence. They allow just 2.68 goals against per contest. A penalty kill that ranks eighth in the league as well at 81.3% goes a long way in that. Their goaltending also plays a huge role in that as well. The Capitals allow the seventh most high danger shots with 176 against. Starter Logan Thompson has had a solid season before his most recent upper body injury has him slated to “miss a little bit of time”. The Caps recalled Hunter Shepard from the minors. However, expect backup Charlie Lindgren to see most of the action for the time being. His numbers are decent with a 18-12-3 a .896 save percentage and 2.67 goals against.
NHL Predictions
Both of these teams come into this game coming off wins. However, the Capitals have the advantage in basically every area. The only place the Islanders are better is in the crease with their goalie. Home ice won’t play a factor as their will probably be more Capitals fans there to watch Alex Ovechkin chase the record. With the great eight on the cusp of history this should give them the extra edge to win this game as they look to stay hot rolling into the playoffs.
Prediction: Capitals win 4-2
Prop Bets
Popular sport books have the Capitals as the rightful favourites at -152 on their money line. We feel that should be a safe bet for this contest. The over/under is set at 5.5. With the number one ranked offence playing in this game the over should be a good bet here at -134. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders take Simon Holmstrom at +370. He scored in the last game to break a five-game points drought, but he has showed improvement again this season. For the Capitals who else would you take besides Alex Ovechkin at -115. He is having another amazing season and just needs the one goal to break Gretzky’s record. Look for goal number 895 to happen on Long Island against one of the few goalies Alex hasn’t scored on in his legendary career.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images
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