Setting some realistic goals for the Pittsburgh Penguins secondary forwards and what to expect this season.
It is time for another round of Pittsburgh Penguins over/under as we get closer to the start of training and the 2024-25 NHL season.
We already looked at some expectations for most of the new players on this year’s roster, and today we are going to look at some of the secondary returning players — Bryan Rust, Michael Bunting, Rickard Rakell and Drew O’Connor.
Let’s get into it.
Bryan Rust: Over/Under 30.5 Goals
This might seem like an overly high number given that Rust has never actually scored 30 goals in a single season, and the fact he is entering his age 32 season.
But I also don’t think it’s unrealistic.
For one, the only thing that has stopped Rust from actually hitting the 30-goal mark in some past seasons was the fact he did not play enough games. That was the case a year ago when he scored a career-high 28 goals in only 62 games. It was a great bounce back season offensively and a much-needed one given his contract.
He has actually scored at a 30-goal pace over 82 games four different times, with all of them coming over the past five years.
Getting a full season’s worth of games might be the biggest obstacle for him.
But when he is on the ice he is still an extremely productive player, figures to get top-line ice-time next to Sidney Crosby and a lot of power play time on top of that. Somebody has to step into that Jake Guentzel role on the top line over a full season, and Rust will likely be that player.
But can he play enough games and still be productive enough to top the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career?
Michael Bunting: Over/Under 25.5 Goals
Bunting was one of the players acquired in the Guentzel trade with Carolina, and he already made a bit of an impact down the stretch. He is still signed for a couple of more years and actually brings a lot of qualities that the Penguins have lacked in their forward group over the past few years. Specifically, a net-front presence that can cause some chaos around the crease and be a pain in the ass.
They have never really replaced that since Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz left the team, and I think the lack of that presence has played at least some role in the consistent gap between their expected goals and actual on-ice goals the past couple of years.
They just have not had enough people to disrupt goalies and score garbage goals.
Well, Bunting can definitely score those goals, and he has been a pretty consistent 20-goal scorer over his career. In his three full NHL seasons he has scored 23, 23 and 19 goals. They are not always the prettiest goals, and sometimes they just seem to bounce off of him into the net, but sometimes you need somebody that can score those goals.
The question is if a full season next to Crosby or Evgeni Malkin can help give him a little boost and get him over the 25-goal mark.
Rickard Rakell: Over/Under 20.5 Goals
Rakell was one of the most underwhelming and disappointing players on the roster during the 2023-24 season.
It was not just the lack of production that hurt, either.
It was the lack of production, combined with the size of his contract, as well as the fact he just seemed to be completely unnoticeable on most nights.
It was a huge step backwards from the 2022-23 season when he was one of the best forwards on the team and looked to be one of the few positive things from the Ron Hextall era.
But can he bounce back and rediscover some of his scoring touch?
He is still a very talented player and can be extremely creative with his playmaking. If he could get somewhere between 20-25 goals and 50-60 points again it would be a significant boost to the Penguins’ top-six in the lineup.
Drew O’Connor: Over/under 15.5 Goals
As disappointing as Rakell’s season was, O’Connor might have been one of the biggest positive surprises on the team.
He scored 16 goals in his first full season in the NHL, moving up and down the lineup in a variety of foles.
He was a little inconsistent at times in terms of his production, but overall he turned out to be an effective depth player and one of the few younger players on the roster from a year ago.
Can he repeat that over a full season and top the 15-goal mark again? Or perhaps even higher?