Penguins Prospect Update: The Dubas drafts

Checking in on how Kyle Dubas’ first two draft classes in Pittsburgh are going

The Pittsburgh Penguins have shifted gears from their window of attempting to contend in the Sidney Crosby era (which lasted probably from around 2005 itself up through the Jake Guentzel trade in 2024), which makes the NHL draft a more important event for the team than it has been in a while.

Pittsburgh GM/President of Hockey Operations Kyle Dubas has been on the job for two drafts with the Pens, and this 4 Nations break stands for a good time to take a beat and look at how his picks are starting to shape up in the early but very important development years that come after a draft. Outlook from hockeydb:

There is not a great amount of quality picks to work with, only one first rounder and just four within the top-100 selections and only five total picks within the first four rounds. There are a bunch of late round flyers.

The most important pick is already out the door, Brayden Yager was flipped via a trade for Rutger McGroarty — who instantly inherited the mantle of being the Pens’ best and most important current prospect. McGroarty has had a developmental season in Wilkes-Barre of the AHL. He’s still just 20 and should be challenging for a spot in the NHL lineup during the 2025-26 season. It’s easy to focus on points (McGroarty has 21 in 41 AHL games) but of bigger consequence for his future would be to develop and become a better skater with improved speed and pace.

Setting the Yager/McGroarty trade aside, early returns are encouraging on the Pens’ action in the second/third rounds under Dubas. Harrison Brunicke is a well-known story as the belle of the ball at Pittsburgh’s 2024 training camp, nearly making the NHL roster. He was working towards being on Canada’s U-20 World Junior team before a wrist injury sidelined him. Overall his statistical profile is raising, Brunicke had 3G+17A in 25 games this year with Kamloops of the WHL (he scored 21 points in 49 games last season in a lesser role) and many are excited with good reason.

Howe made that Canada WJC team and has 19 points (6G+13A) in 21 games during the time he’s been on Calgary of the WHL this season. His ceiling as a pro doesn’t look super-high but Howe does have all-around elements for competitiveness, PK/well-rounded play that makes him one of Pittsburgh’s better home-grown drafted forward prospects in a long time.

Pieniniemi has been making a name for himself with a similar upward trajectory as Brunicke in terms of development. Pieniniemi jumped from Finland to the OHL this year, and currently ranks fifth among defensemen scoring with 49 points in 46 games. We wrote a good deal about Pieniniemi last month after the World Juniors, many were, are and should be excited about how he’s gone from a third round pick and developed into a very intriguing prospect in a short time.

Beyond that, the latest prospect turning heads is defenseman Finn Harding. With 47 points in 51 games for Brampton of the OHL, Harding is just behind Pieniniemi in OHL scoring. Harding was picked 223rd in last year’s draft — a draft that contained 225 picks. Harding turned heads earlier this month by putting up a five point (1G+4A) game. He wears No. 7 for highlight tracking purposes.

“Smart, intelligent defender. He’s a guy that takes pride in his own end,” is what the Penguins former director of amateur scouting Nick Pryor told the Trib about Harding last summer. “He’s a high-character kid. We just felt good about the progress that he made. He takes pride in his defensive play and he can move the puck as well.”

Now, to amend a line from The Wire there’s a long way between heaven (the NHL) and here (here being putting up big points in the OHL as a 19-year old when having future high pick Porter Martone to feed pucks to inflate stats) but here’s to thinking Harding would go significantly higher than 223rd overall if the draft could be redone a few months later. That’s nice progress and putting him on the radar as a prospect to keep at least half an eye on from what his future could hold if he continues to develop at this pace.

2023’s fifth round pick Mikhail Ilyin continues to enthrall and please almost everyone that sees him play. The forward is supremely intelligent and has the rare distinction of being a very productive teenaged KHL player in a league where young players earning a significant role/ice time is practically unheard of. Ilyin has 4G+20A in 52 games this season

Ilyin has spoke recently with a non-committal attitude towards what next season could hold, mentioning that the Penguin organization doesn’t have contact with him during the year. But like we saw with Russian goalie Sergei Murashov’s rapid courtship last summer that started with the Pens not expecting him for summer development camp, scrambling to get his accommodations set and then signing him to an NHL entry level contract soon after, developments can move quickly once contracts expire, but plans and knowing ahead of time usually isn’t as common.

The rest of the Pens’ 2023 and 2024 draft classes are marinating in even more anonymity than the ones we focused on today. That alone doesn’t eliminate all hopes of a pro career, but it also isn’t particularly encouraging to not be bursting on the scene and making a name for themselves in the lower ranks like the way Harding has done this season. That, of course, is also natural that not every drafted player is going to immediately blossom into a tremendous option and for every Harding that grabs attention with a big, flashy move, others toil along at a slower pace.

Considering draft slots it remains fairly impressive to see Pittsburgh end up with some legitimately decent prospects in Brunicke, Pieniniemi and perhaps now Harding getting selected deep into the drafts. The Pens have McGroarty still as their top prospect who is a forward, but it’s hard to miss that the majority of Dubas intriguing picks for the Pens so far have been defensemen. (Then again, Dubas also did trade for forwards like Vasily Ponomarev and Ville Koivunen, which is just as well at helping to build up the organization from a different area).

Hockey drafting strategy is always best served as best player available, and the Pens are thin enough that what they have on hand shouldn’t influence future decisions but it will be interesting to see in the years ahead how the Pens do with forwards, particularly since it’s looking like the top-half of the 2025 draft is stocked with mostly forwards. They would be lucky and happy if these first few drafts could be rich with blueline talent for the organization in the years ahead that it will take to turn junior aged players into pros.