History would indicate it is getting very late, very early for the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins.
With Tuesday’s loss to the Minnesota Wild the Pittsburgh Penguins find themselves at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division standings and with one of the worst records in the NHL.
They have looked every bit as bad as that record would indicate.
Defensively, they are objectively and subjectively one of the worst teams in the league.
The goaltending has been mostly bad whether it’s been one of the mediocre veterans in net or the young and promising Joel Blomqvist (though he has at least had his moments and done what he can given the expectations).
The offense has been mostly inconsistent.
It is rough.
It is not only one of the worst starts in the NHL for this season, it is one of the worst starts for any Penguins team in the history of the franchise. And there have been some bad teams in the early parts of this franchise.
They are also giving themselves quite a hole to dig out of as it relates to recent NHL history and actually making the playoffs.
I think at this point we are all pretty much in universal agreement that the playoffs are probably a long-shot at this point. But just how long of a shot are we talking about here, and what do the numbers look like?
Let’s start with the Penguins history angle of this.
Dating back to the franchise’s beginning in 1967-68, this is the 17th time the Penguins opened a season with three wins or less through their first 11 games. It is the first time it has happened since the 2005-06 season (1-5-5) and just the fifth time since 1990.
Their seven total points in the standings is also one of the worst marks, with only four seasons having a worse start through 11 games.
Of those 17 teams that started a season with three wins or less, only six of them went on to make the playoffs, with four of those instances happening in the 1970s when it was far easier to make the playoffs.
The two most relevant teams that overcame such a bad start to actually get in the playoffs were the 1996-97 team, which overcame a 2-9-0 start to finish 38-36-8 to make the playoffs, and the 1999-00 team which overcame a 2-5-3 start to finish 37-31-8 to make the playoffs.
In both instances the Penguins underwent coaching changes during the season, with Herb Brooks replacing Kevin Constantine in the latter season and Craig Patrick replacing Eddie Johnston in the former (though, that coaching change was not anywhere near as productive).
Either way, this is relatively uncharted territory for the Penguins organization to find themselves in this position this early in a season. It has not happened often, and it has not happened in a long time.
But let’s take a look at this from a more league-wide perspective and try to calculate the odds of getting back into a playoff position.
Since the start of the 2005-06 season there have been 71 teams in the NHL that have won three games or less through their first 11 games.
Out of those 71 teams, only nine of them went on to make the playoffs that season. That is roughly 12 percent.
One of those nine teams was the 2019-20 Chicago Blackhawks who only made it in due to the expanded playoff field in the pandemic shortened season. They were the 24th ranked team in the league.
Three of those nine teams made coaching changes at some point in the season, including the most recent team to overcome such a bad start, the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers.
After missing the playoffs two years in a row and not really making any major changes this offseason the playoffs were probably already a coin flip proposition for this team. There were some variables that still could go their way in flipping the script, but so far very few of them have happened, while some elements that were a strength a year ago (5-on-5 play, for example) have gotten significantly worse.
With back-to-back home games against the Anaheim Ducks and Montreal Canadiens there is at least a potential window to stack a couple of wins and maybe give yourself some momentum and increase the odds in your favor. But if you do not win both, or somehow lose both, it would be a major problem for a couple of reasons. Not only because it would further lower your odds, but also because at that point you would not even be beating the worst teams in the league.