What will happen for the Pens at the deadline?
The focus of the hockey world has been on the NHL’s smash hit of the 4 Nations Faceoff but with that event now over the next major action item is happening two weeks from the day. The trade deadline is Friday March 7th. We’ve sought input for what the fanbase might hope should happen, but here are some educated guesses on what will happen before the upcoming deadline
Bryan Rust – Staying. This shouldn’t be a shock, per The Athletic the Penguins have not approached Rust about his willingness to waive his full no movement clause and apparently the team has no plans to do so. That pretty much ends all questions about Rust’s availability at this time. Rust is a heart and soul player; he’s a Mike Sullivan guy, he’s a Sidney Crosby guy. Gotta have some NHL caliber players and Rust figures to be a key member of the Pens for a while longer.
Erik Karlsson – Staying. Dealing a soon-to-be 35-year old defensemen with a $10 million cap hit that has two more full seasons and a full no movement clause is going to be a tricky proposition. It might happen this summer, but dealing Karlsson is not an in-season type of transaction to attempt to pull off with so many moving parts and different considerations in play.
Alex Nedeljkovic – Staying. Don’t see why any other team would want Nedeljkovic and his $2.5 million cap hit for next season, overall he’s been among the bottom-end of NHL goalies. There’s also the matter that the Pens like to lean on him and seem fine with him starting a lot of games. Six or 12 months from now it might be a different story, but he stays put for now in part due to lack of outside interest and in part due to how important he is for the Penguins themselves.
Rickard Rakell – Staying…maybe. I think this is the one most up for grabs and perhaps even be a 50/50 shot out of all the names on the list. Rakell is having a great season, his $5.0 million cap hit has become a lot more palatable to contenders with the explosive growth of the salary cap in upcoming years. If a good offer comes in and someone really wants him, then Pittsburgh has to consider it. If a good enough offer comes in to make it impossible to say no, then the Pens can’t say no. Predicting whether or not that happens where another team steps up with that big offer is anyone’s guess. Since the Pens have not been in a hurry to trade away players with term left we’ll lean to think that Rakell is staying in Pittsburgh to finish out the season, but admittedly that could completely go the other direction in just one phone call.
Matt Grzelcyk – Going. Still can’t believe there will be a market for him considering how disastrous he’s been at times this season. In fairness Grzelcyk has been mis-cast as a top-four defender and has improved as the year has gone along. If nothing else his assist total looks impressive and does speak to some nice ability to move the puck. It’ll be a mid-round pick in return and the team that picks him up probably won’t get a lot out of it, but hey, compiling depth is the name of the game this time of year, particularly on defense where it’s at a premium. Pittsburgh picking up Vladislav Kolyachonok from waivers gives them a warm body for the blueline to add in depth for the rest of the season in a move that seems like it’s pre-replacing Grzelcyk before it even happens.
Anthony Beauvillier – Going. Beauvillier got traded last season (for a fifth round pick) when he was having a worse year than currently, so I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a last resort type of add for a contender that misses out on a bigger prize or one doesn’t want to spend a lot of trade ammo to bring in a new body. Again, won’t be much of a return or too exciting but makes sense for the Pens to cash him in for something of value on the trade market and promote a younger forward from the AHL for the balance of the season.
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In the end, if it breaks like this it’ll be a fairly quiet deadline for the Penguins to take what they can get for veterans on expiring contracts and move it along. It would be interesting and a positive development if something unexpected can happen like flipping a Noel Acciari or Cody Glass but there’s little reason to count on unexpected developments until they materialize.
It’s an anti-climatic deadline since the Pens have already traded Lars Eller, Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor well before the deadline. Those were there three best, obviously available pieces to offer. But that could also make the deadline fun, since the question isn’t now so much of a “stay or go” for existing players but might shift to if Kyle Dubas and company can use any of the draft picks in order to acquire young NHL talent at this time. They can always sit on the picks and see what happens, but if the Pens make any big movements near the deadline it might be more exciting than selling off a mid-level player on an expiring contract for a mid-level draft pick if they can do something out of left field and bring in something to the fold.