Switching the free agent focus to Marcus Pettersson

Now that the Crosby contract is done, the Penguins have other decisions to consider

By his very nature Marcus Pettersson is not a player or large personality who takes up a lot of spotlight. The Swede goes about his business, quietly doing his job of being a steady, reliable defender so that his teammates can succeed. But now that Sidney Crosby’s contract is resolved, Petterson inches towards prominence as the most significant free agent decision Pittsburgh has left on their docket for 2025. Reports were already starting to creep up even before the Crosby extension was completed.

Pettersson, 28, is in the final year of a five-year, $20,125,875 contract and owns an eight-team no-trade list this season.

It is too early to guestimate what type of dollars and term Pettersson will be looking for on a new contract with the Penguins, or what the Pens are prepared to do on their end, but formal talks are likely to begin after the regular-season gets underway and that will then determine how discussions will or won’t progress.

With regards to the initial report, it is not too early to see some key touch points for Pettersson and the Penguins to consider as the embark on negotiating towards common ground. The odd thing about defensive defensemen is that there are as many different valuations as there are managers, depending on what areas they choose to put emphasis on. It’s not as easy or predictable to put a direct price tag on what could happen.

Here are some pertinent examples of contracts for UFA-aged defenders and when they were signed for comparable level of defensive defensemen not known as being physical. We’re only going back the last two years, due to the rising salary cap wiping away relevance for older deals. One final note that Pettersson’s next contract will kick in when he’s 29.

• Esa Lindell, DAL: $5.25 million for five years (age 31-35), Sep 2024
• Adam Larsson, SEA: $5.25 million for three years (age 33-35), Sep 2024
• Brett Pesce, NJD: $5.5 million for six years (age 29-34), Jul 2024
• Dylan DeMelo, WIN: $4.9 million for four years (age 31-34), Jun 2024
• Ryan Graves, PIT: $4.5 million for six years (age 28-33), Jul 2023
• Vladislav Gavrikov, LA: $5.875 million for two years (age 28-29), Jun 2023
• Artem Zub, OTT: $4.6 million for four years (age 28-31), Dec 2022

Recent news on extensions for impending 2025 free agents Lindell and Larsson set a clear level of where the market is for defenders who don’t put up a lot of points but eat minutes as complimentary players. That $5.25m mark is similar to the contract given to the very well-regarded Pesce, who went to free agency, changed teams and presumably found the best deal out there for this type of defender.

As a group these players are a slightly older than Pettersson. All three are also the very valued right handed defender, which Pettersson is not. Gavrikov’s outlier deal of high dollars for low term could make him another important extension comparison if and when he signs up.

If that gives an idea of Pettersson’s general market value, the next question – and arguably the biggest question – is will the Penguins want to meet it?

The Pens are very thin on left defense, the need for keeping a solid contributor is obvious. Pettersson has grown into one of the team’s best players, he works with Kris Letang, he works with Erik Karlsson. The fit and familiarity are wonderful value adds. Chasing new defenseman and plopping them on a new team doesn’t always work (with the too topical example of Graves in 2023-24). Keeping Pettersson removes that unknown element from the equation.

Another plus is since Pettersson is already in the team’s salary structure at $4 million, no matter what his next contract works out to be the amount shouldn’t be unmanageable for the Pens’ contract structure. His 2025-26 cap hit isn’t going to be dramatically higher or unaffordable compared to what they have carried for years now.

With the team in an odd form of retooling mindset while also a desire towards competing now, there’s not a clear path to follow. Even at a market rate, Petterson’s next cap hit should not give a ton of pause, but committing the five or six years might be a different matter for a team in transition away from that direction.

Every player the Penguins brought in this off-season via trade or free agency (save youngsters on unavoidable three-year entry level contracts and rookie Jack St. Ivany on a potentially AHL-buriable league minimum salary) has been for one or two years. That’s no coincidence, and even Crosby himself directly cited being cognizant to sign a short extension for the sake of what the team’s mid-range future might hold.

If the door is open to the idea of a more complete tear down in two or three years, signing a market rate defender for double that length of time doesn’t coincide with that vision. Which is also reminiscent of the end game in Pittsburgh with Jake Guentzel.

It boils down to a simple question; just how likely does Kyle Dubas see the need for a deep rebuild (or whatever softer word he chooses to use)?

The answer that management chooses to that question will set the stage for that negotiation will speak volumes about the path the club is actually on. A true retooling/rebuilding team by definition doesn’t hand out too many UFA length contracts to retain good players into their 30’s, they reload by cashing in via trade and starting anew with younger assets.

Then again, management could opt to take their time and let Pittsburgh’s regular season performance dictate what their next move should be. This was more or less the mindset for how the tepid Guentzel negotiation played out last year. If the team does well and is carrying momentum by January or February towards a playoff spot, it becomes easier and maybe automatic to want to keep Pettersson.

But should the inverse be true and the team sputters to the point that they’re not doing much with Pettersson anyways, switching into a sell mode near the deadline and looking to the UFA market (hello Shea Theodore, Jake McCabe or Jakob Chychrun!) to sign a replacement would be a path to pile up more young assets in exchange for Pettersson.

That strategy would not be without risk, since free agent defensemen have more leverage and suitors to extract more term and/or money, not to mention the Pens would be in a fairly desperate situation next summer with their left defense situation without Pettersson.

Now that Crosby is wrapped up, the team’s next item in Pettersson will be a very telling point in where the team is headed in the mid-range future, and just how much of a retool/rebuild that they are truly interested in undertaking while Crosby is an active player.