The Pittsburgh Penguins might not be particularly good, but they should not be this bad, either.
Nobody should have delusions as to whether or not the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins are any good. They are not. They have real flaws, and they are significant in both quality and quantity.
I am not going to sit here and tell you they are a good defensive team.
Because they are not.
Nobody shoud sit here and try to convince you that they are a good offensive team.
Because outside of a few players at the top, they are not.
But I am also not sure they are bottom-five in the NHL bad. I am not sure they are “hey, a top-five pick is looking very likely” bad. That is where they are trending in the standings, especially as the season gets closer and closer to the NHL trade deadline when the roster will become even thinner than it already is.
The biggest reason they are losing so many games, and the biggest reason they were pretty much humiliated over the weekend in back-to-back games against the Washington Capitals and New York Rangers, is the simple fact their goalies stink. We know they stink. We have known they stink. Goaltending has been the single biggest weakness this team has had for the better part of five years now with no real sign of getting better in the immediate future.
While it may not be the only problem, it is certainly the one of the most significant.
Just consider these numbers from the past two games this weekend.
The Penguins allowed just 47 shots on goal against the Capitals and Rangers.
They allowed only 19 high-danger scoring chances. Just for comparisons sake, the Penguins had nearly that many high-danger chances for themselves on Saturday afternoon against the Capitals (18) and had 25(!) for themselves against the Rangers on Sunday afternoon.
They allowed only 5.36 expected goals.
Despite those numbers, their goalies allowed 12(!) goals.
Objectively speaking, it was not a bad defensive performance. Neither performance was bad overall. They may not have been deserving of a win on Saturday on Washington, but they were certainly not deserving of an 8-2 loss.
They not only deserved a win on Sunday, they dominated the game from start to finish.
That is what bad goaltending does to a team. And make no mistake, there was some bad goaltending on display over the weekend. Both Alex Nedeljkovic and Joel Blomqvist allowed some ugly, ugly goals on Saturday. I think you can make an argument that most, if not all, of the goals that Blomqvist allowed on Sunday could have been stopped.
This is also not a new trend. Over the Penguins’ past five games going back to the pre-break games, they had allowed only 39 high-danger chances (only 7.8 per game) and only 11.3 expected goals.
They had a decisive edge in both categories over that stretch.
Despite that territorial and chance dominance, they have won just one of the five games and allowed 20 goals. That is nine worse than expected. That is …. awful.
That is also what makes goaltending the greatest X-factor in the NHL. Great goalies turn lottery teams into fringe playoff teams and fringe playoff teams into contenders. Bad goaltending turns contenders into fringe playoff teams, and fringe playoff teams into lottery teams.
That is where the Penguins currently are.
That could continue to play a role this week with four games on the schedule, including two games to start the week against another potential lottery team, the Philadelphia Flyers.
The Penguins play the Flyers on Tuesday and Thursday in a home-and-home set to open the week. These two games have no practical purpose in the standings as far as the playoffs are concerned, but they could play a big role in draft lottery odds. The Flyers just beat the Penguins, 3-2, in one of those aforementioned games before the break. A sweep from one of these teams here could have significant lottery ramifications.
The Flyers are coming off an impressive 6-3 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Saturday.
After the home-and-home with the Flyers, the Penguins return home for another home weekend back-to-back with the Boston Bruins coming in on Saturday and the Toronto Maple Leafs arriving on Sunday.
The Bruins are on the fringes of playoff contention and have some significant flaws on their roster. They have also been mostly lousy over the past couple of weeks and will be without a couple of top defensemen in Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm. But they are going to have everything to play for and should – should – be highly motivated.
The Toronto game on Sunday is the one that has the potential to get ugly for the Penguins from a goaltending and goals against perspective. While the Maple Leafs have their own flaws, they still have high-end talent at the top of the roster, have won five of their past six games.
In terms of opponents, there are some winnable games here this week. If the Penguins were getting competent goaltending I would expect at least four points and maybe even six out of this week for a potentially significant move in terms of potential playoff positioning. With the current state of their goaltending, however, this could be a significant week for their draft lottery odds instead.