The good teams are significantly outplaying the Pittsburgh Penguins. They get some bad teams at home this week. They have to win some games.
It is probably a very fair assessment at this point to say that the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Penguins are not a very good hockey team. They have problems. They have flaws. They have weaknesses.
When the season began expectations were probably as low as they have been in over two decades, especially after back-to-back years out of the playoffs and with zero playoff series wins since the 2017-18 season. This should not be totally unexpected. After nearly two decades on top — and honestly, it has been more than 30 years on top with only a few individual exception seasons mixed in — it is inevitable that some struggles will start to happen.
That is unavoidable.
It is one thing to have to rebuild, or retool and lose some games.
It is another thing to get completely embarrassed. Right now, the Penguins are getting embarrassed. Especially when they play good teams. That happened consistently on their Western Canadian road trip where they lost all four games, and were not really competitive in any of them outside of the game in Calgary that they gave away late.
For the season, the Penguins have played six games against playoff teams from a year ago. They are 0-6 in those games, have been outscored 28-9, have a 41 percent expected goals share in all situations and only a 38 percent expected goals share during 5-on-5 hockey in those games. That is not just losing. That is getting humiliated. If anything is going to put head coach Mike Sullivan on the hot seat, it is going to be a continuation of that.
I do not care how much ownership loves Sullivan, or if the team recognizes it needs to look toward the future. At some point a professional organization has to realize when a team is not even being competitive and consider making changes.
The Penguins look slow, systematically bad, horrific defensively and are not getting enough from some of their highest paid players. Sidney Crosby has not looked like Sidney Crosby. Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang have played some of the worst hockey of their careers on defense. Their starting goalie is currently playing in the American Hockey League. They are 3-6-1 through 10 games.
They have made it pretty clear they are not going to be competitive against the top teams in the league.
That is what makes this week so fascinating because it SHOULD be an opportunity maybe try to get some wins and maybe keep things interesting for a little while longer this season.
The week starts on Tuesday with what should be an exciting night with Marc-Andre Fleury and the Minnesota Wild visiting Pittsburgh. It is expected to be Fleury’s last game in Pittsburgh for his career as he is expected to retire after this season. While Minnesota was not a playoff team a year ago, it is off to a strong start this season and has some big-time talent on its roster.
Can you imagine how ugly it might get for the Penguins if they get skated out of the building and the home town fans are cheering for the opposing goalie while their own starting goalie was pretty much sent away from the team?
That would be a brutal look for everybody.
It is also something that seems realistically possible given the way the season has gone so far.
After that they play the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday night. While the Ducks have a pretty talented young roster, they have been awful so far this season defensively. Their 5-on-5 expected goal share of 42.8 percent is the third-worst in the NHL ahead of only the Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings, while their 3.23 expected goals against per 60 minutes is also the third-worst ahead of only Pittsburgh and Montreal.
That is a game you should win. Especially at home.
The same is true for Saturday against the Montreal Canadiens.
The Penguins already beat Montreal earlier this season, but it was not exactly easy. The Canadiens are also in a situation where they are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and really only have one line that can be counted on for offense with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield leading their top line. It is a good line to be sure, but if you can limit them you should be able to limit their entire offense.
This is a week where four, five or even six points should be the expectation. The bare minimum expectation should be four points. Winning all three games should be reasonable if you are anything even close to a competitive team. But if the Penguins lose two of these games, or even all three of them, or simply do not look good in the process, you have to start wondering about whether or not this becomes a draft lottery season. If you can not get some wins this week, it is fair to wonder what teams you are capable of beating this season.