Taking an individual look at some of the Pittsburgh Penguins best potential trade chips and what the team should do with them before the 2024-25 Trade Deadline next month.
We know the Pittsburgh Penguins are going to be sellers at the trade deadline (mostly because they already started selling), we just do not really know to what degree they are going to sell.
We know Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are not going anywhere.
We are probably pretty confident that Bryan Rust and Kris Letang are not either.
After that? Everybody probably has a price. So let’s use the 4 Nations tournament break as an opportunity to look at some individual players on the roster and what the Penguins could (or should) do with them.
We start today with forward Rickard Rakell.
Rakell’s tenure with the Penguins have been a bit of a roller coaster.
He arrived via trade at the 2021 trade deadline with what I think were relatively low expectations. He exceeded all of them the remainder of that season, signed a long-term contract extension, had a great first full season, badly regressed in year two, and in year three has probably been the best player on the team not named Crosby.
He is close to a 40-goal pace for the season and has consistently showed a strong chemistry on Crosby’s wing on the top line.
Given his production and the term he has remaining on his contract, he could probably generate quite a bit of interest ahead of the March 7 NHL Trade Deadline.
But what should the Penguins do with him?
The argument for keeping him
Simply put, he is good, and he has been great playing next to Crosby from the moment he arrived in Pittsburgh. Even though he is on the other side of 30 (he is in his age 31 season), he is still probably at a point in his career where he could — and perhaps should — have some productive hockey ahead of him.
Among the 310 forwards that have logged at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey this season, Rakell ranks 13th in goals per 60 minutes (1.26), 41st in points per 60 minutes (2.24), 69th in shots per 60 minutes (7.58) and 57th in individual expected goals per 60 minutes (0.86).
He has been a legit, bonafide top-line player.
His contract is also setting itself up to be a potential bargain next season. A $5 million salary cap hit under a $95 million cap would be the equivalent to a $4.5 million cap number this season. When the cap goes up to $104 million in 2026-27, it will be the equivalent to a $4.2 million cap number this season.
As long as he maintains production that is at least somewhat comparable to what he is doing this season, even if it is drops by a little bit, that is incredible value. There is no way you are going to find better value on the free agent market, and it would take a great deal of luck to find it via trade.
His acquisition and contract is the one positive thing from Ron Hextall’s infamous reign of error.
If the Penguins still have some hope of trying to re-tool themselves into a playoff team during the remainder of Crosby’s career (or even an interest in trying to do so) then Rakell could still be a part of that.
Finding a comparable player or an upgrade will not be easy.
The argument for trading him
Based on everything just said in the section above, there is a good argument to be made that Rakell’s value will never be higher than it is right now.
It might be smart for the Penguins to try and pounce on that and take advantage of the interest his great season might be generating.
He is a top-line scorer with affordable term remaining on his contract. That is one of the most valuable trade chips a selling team can have at the deadline because any team making a move for him is going to get several seasons and postseason runs with him on their top line.
There is also the chance that he does not score like this again next season, which would only bring his value back down.
The whole “sell high, buy low” motto.
Even if it is not part of a complete rebuild, even if they try to get younger NHL players or prospects closer to the NHL so they can try to compete sooner, they still might be able to turn him into a big return that could help in both the shorter term and the longer term.
Trade or keep?
They should obviously listen (and I am sure they are), but unless somebody absolutely wows them with an offer they simply can not refuse I am leaning toward the “keep” category.
Aside from trying to move him at peak value, there is just no immediate rush or pressure to trade him right now. Even if he does not fully match this year’s production, he is still probably closer to the 2022-23 version than what we saw during the 2023-24 season. Even that player would still have big value on a $5 million salary cap number the next couple of seasons.
Listen. Set an extremely high price. See what the offers are. If none of the offers match that high price, then just simply keep the top-line winger.