Tuesday update: Penguins status and outlook a few days before the NHL trade deadline

News, notes on speculation far and wide about the Penguins with the impending trade deadline

The NHL’s trade deadline is Friday afternoon. Much of the league is in a holding pattern the past few days, but a flurry of activity is still expected as teams stock up for what they hope will be long playoff runs. As the days tick away, here are some items that are out there about the Penguins and commentary on them.

Timing

The Penguins are on the road this week, playing tonight in Colorado and then again after the deadline passes on Friday night in Las Vegas. With P.O Joseph now on the IR, Pittsburgh has 13 healthy forwards (plus Michael Bunting on the IR from last week’s appendix surgery) and seven healthy defenseman. As Josh Yohe in The Athletic pointed out, the logistics of being far from home would make it better if the Pens completed business early to ensure that they could get reinforcements to Vegas for their game to not play short-handed.

It doesn’t make a lot of sense for the team to trade a multiple of players away on Friday during the heat of the deadline moment. That may be unavoidable, but could be worked around by calling up a player from the minors before trades are made. For instance, if the team was preparing to move two forwards on Friday, it would make sense to prepare by calling up a forward on Wednesday or Thursday so that they can make it out for the game on Friday night and still have a full compliment of players.

That’s more a wait and see thing, but could be worth tracking about what position or which player(s) get called up. The situation could apply that the team would be looking for defensive depth if, say, a Matt Grzelcyk trade was impending. The Pens only have space for one as of right now, but trades can move quickly to open up more spots.

It would be a best practice to conduct whatever trade business the Pens could on Wednesday or Thursday. It takes two to tango and contending teams have to run out the clock to drain every day possible for cap purposes, so it remains to be seen how practical that might be. Either way, it will be interesting to keep in mind with how the off days play out about which transactions as far as trades or a call-up happen since the Penguins are far from home base and have a limited number (namely, one) move to make ahead of time, should they opt to go that route.

Erik Karlsson

The Penguin defenseman made an appearance in a prominent spot on Nick Kypreos’ “Names to watch” piece yesterday.

After a great performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, Erik Karlsson has returned to NHL action with seven points in six games, but a minus-7 rating overall.

Making $10 million against the cap for another two seasons beyond this one, it won’t be too punishing if the Penguins retain a little money, especially if it increases Karlsson’s trade value. Seth Jones, though a younger defenceman, was moved over the weekend for a young, future hopeful No. 1 netminder and a first-round pick and the Blackhawks had to retain $2.5 million of his cap hit to get that return.

Could the Penguins take a similar approach with Karlsson? The team has one more salary retention slot remaining, with Reilly Smith and Jeff Petry on the books through the end of this season.

National TV reporter Kathryn Tappen asked Karlsson on Sunday if Pittsburgh had approached him about waiving his full no movement clause and he said they had not, and also noted he has control of the situation as far as landing spots go. That piece of information ought to loom larger than Kypreos’ commentary since the first step in a trade would be finding out about if and where Karlsson would be willing to go, or if he was even willing to change teams in the coming days. Since that topic has not yet been broached, any potential trade talk has to be seen with that context.

Perhaps those conversations still could happen in short order — Jones getting moved out of Chicago went 0 to 60 very quickly last week — but as of now the smart money on Karlsson would be to circle back in the offseason when there’s less time constraints for all parties to figure out what happens with him next.

Rickard Rakell

Some ESPN writers cooked up “trades we want to see” and Rakell featured. Ryan Clark dreamed up this one:

Permission to have Clark be the Utah GM? If this was out there, the Pens would have to bite. The Utah pick was slotted to 11th overall as of yesterday and could end up being fairly valuable. Maccelli put up seasons of 49 and 57 points in the previous two years (though his role and importance has decreased this season), but he’s still a skilled 24-year old that would be a welcome addition to the Penguins’ top-six forward group.

That said, we’ll put this in the heavy “we’ll see” category too. Rakell owns an 8-team no trade, and only a few weeks ago his pregnant wife was briefly hospitalized (causing him to have to fly back to Pittsburgh from the west coast). Is Utah a place he could block? It could well be. Would he want to uproot himself at this very moment? Is such a plum offer even on the table? Lots of questions there that would have to be answered in a specific way to get to the finish line.

While it’s certainly possible that Rakell could be dealt before the deadline, the Utah connection and this exact return is admitted subjective conjecture. Probably won’t go down like this, but might speak to the vast array of teams that could be looking to add a player like Rakell who has 28 goals this season and a reasonable $5.0 million cap hit locked in for the next few years. That could attract many interested parties, which only bodes well for the Pens’ chances to make a good trade.

All that said, if Rakell is traded in the coming hours, it would make more sense for a deal to be struck with a team currently above the playoff line (and, with apologies to Utah, more of a known destination type of club that he wouldn’t potentially have on his no trade list).

At this point for potential of being dealt plus the strength of the return, Rakell’s situation is surely the most interesting question to be answered in the coming hours and days. The Pens are in a good spot: either they win by keeping a productive player a while longer or they win by selling him away for a strong return. It’s an enviable position to be in as they wait to see who might come calling to add Rakell.

Odds and ends

Yohe’s report did have an interesting line:

Veterans such as Matt Grzelcyk, Anthony Beauvillier and Noel Acciari are available. It would be a surprise if at least one of them isn’t moved.

Beauvillier and Grzelcyk are on expiring contracts, naturally pulling their names to trade possibilities for contenders looking for depth and short-term rental adds. Haven’t seen Acciari, under contract next year for $2.0 million, out there so much in this cycle of trade reports. Obviously that would be a deal worth executing for the Pens, if they can find a taker. Last year they couldn’t find a good price for Lars Eller, a superior player to Acciari. But last year the news about exploding future salary caps wasn’t known, so perhaps the situation has changed.

The real takeaway, as almost anyone agrees, is that the Penguins have very few untouchables. By all accounts, they are not interested in moving a player with a full no movement clause this week (Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust and presumably Karlsson) but every other player on the NHL roster would likely be made available if a contender was interested and willing to toss back the right trade chip(s).

That last part is the great unknown, where only time can answer. There’s a few more days before the rubber really hits the road as teams around the league gear up to make their final tweaks for the 2024-25 season.