What will the Penguins do about their Tristan Jarry problem?

Checking out the possibilities in net for the Penguins

The Penguins have a problem in net. Through three starts, Tristan Jarry (.833 save%, 5.47 GAA) is almost approaching Antti Niemi-as-a-Penguin bad (.797 save%, 7.97 GAA). Jarry’s -4.5 GSAA is the second worst in the NHL currently, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Unfortunately, Jarry’s fall from grace as a reliable netminder has not been a new development. Jarry lost his job as the Pens’ starting goalie down the stretch last spring and he’s only picked up right where he left off in the struggle zone.

While a team can go ahead and quickly punt a veteran backup on a cheap one-year contract like Niemi, it’s a different circumstance for a goalie like Jarry that is signed through 2028 with a $5.375 million cap hit.

That contract hangs over the current situation at the moment, amping up the level of difficulty to an uncomfortable degree. In situations like this you could wonder what Jim Rutherford might do, which would probably be to flip Jarry for a similar bad contract/bad stats player like Elvis Merzlikins or something like that. The current Pittsburgh GM has not proven to be as reactionary to that extreme, but the situation has devolved to certainly justify conversations on the matter in net take place.

There’s another variable in play, too. Backup goalie Alex Nedeljkovic is returning to health and has been activated from the injured reserve today. However, the team is buying themselves some time and taking a reasonable course of action to let Nedeljkovic get back into form with a rehab assignment to the AHL.

Nedeljkovic can stay in the AHL for a limited amount of time (three games) which means the clock is ticking on forcing some decisions on how to move forward. Let’s go over some potential choices.

#1: Pull the plug on Jarry

A Jarry trade in the near future is unlikely, teams are flush to the salary cap and who is going to want a struggling goalie on and expensive and long contract? No one. At least no one without putting the Pens in the same spot they’re already in by sending back an equal or worse contract.

Waivers provides another option to part ways with Jarry from the NHL roster. There’s a league-wide precedent for this, several high-priced goalies who have lost their way and been dealt with in this fashion. Jack Campbell and Cal Petersen have been sent to the AHL in recent years to work on restoring their game and attempting to rebuild their confidence, but mostly because their level of performance has rendered them unplayable (sound familiar?). Ville Husso fits into this category as well, being waived a few days ago.

It’s worth pointing out this path hasn’t worked out well for the goalie or the team once a team punts a high-paid goalie off their NHL roster. It’s meant they are heading for separation. Campbell was eventually bought out by Edmonton, Petersen was traded by Los Angeles (at the cost of a first and second round pick, and he had half the term remaining at that time than Jarry does now). Both goalies have never regained their game. Both teams were left paying a significant price in terms of future cap hit or assets to jettison them for good. That makes the idea a lose/lose proposition and just a matter of timing for when and how costly the conclusion will be.

This route may not solve the problem long term without incurring a costly price, but if the Pens view Jarry as absolutely unplayable, it might develop into being unavoidable.

#2: Go with three goalies

The Penguins don’t have to be so drastic as a nuclear option of removing Jarry from their roster with so much time to go on his contract. They’re in a positive position where they have the cap space to keep three goalies on their roster this season, if they so wanted. That tends to be an awkward dynamic but if Joel Blomqvist continues to play well it presents them with an additional NHL option that can help them, while accomplishing a solution to at least temporarily avoid down a bad path with Jarry.

Blomqvist has saved 16 of 17 high danger shots this season, keeping him with the big club is more than justifiable and enables him to get more action and potentially work his way into staying on the team for the long term. Jarry not getting cut keeps the door open that if Blomqvist’s play drops, the team has other options moving forward.

#3: Keep waiting

Perhaps the least palatable option as we sit in this moment, taking a pause also could be the sensible course of play. Jarry hasn’t been good this season, and of bigger concern beyond the level of play is that his confidence and mentality looks off.

But players and especially goalies can rise and fall quickly. When Nedeljkovic returns to the NHL roster, he could take the majority of playing time like he did at the end of last season. Sticking with Jarry now (whether that comes in the form of keeping two or three goalies in the NHL) and giving him playing opportunities could instill some confidence as the team slowly tries to rebuild him back to a workable form. For best results, the team will be limiting Jarry’s playing time and adjusting their plans until he regains trust with any choice that gets made.

It’s still very early in the season and there are several more twists and turns to come. Nedeljkovic’s personal performance has not always been reliable and Blomqvist as a young netminder will surely be subjected to natural ups and downs along the way. Working with Jarry at the NHL level might not be a satisfactory solution in the moment but they have already committed a lot towards his success. Giving him the opportunity in slow doses to get back towards steadiness would be a hopeful result. At this point hope is one of the only strategies the Pens have on the table, unless they’ve absolutely made their minds up that the guy they’ve seen over the last 20ish starts is the one that isn’t worth redeeming.

Any choice is rife with potential consequences but the early season shakiness is demanding that some uncomfortable questions be asked at this time. Soon enough, the Penguins will have to start showing their answers.