Here’s what our staff has to say.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are back for another season, and there is a lot of excitement surrounding the team, which Paul Skenes leads.
Skenes is entering his second MLB season as he looks to establish himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He’ll have a team behind him looking to prove itself and make a surprise run in the NL Central.
Here’s a look at what our staff is predicting for the season:
Peyton Celesti
Earlier this offseason, I said that the Pirates must have a deeper lineup to succeed. This meant not depending on 38-year-old Andrew McCutchen to be in the middle of your lineup daily by aggressively acquiring hitters with proven track records or high upside, most realistically through trade. Very few young bright spots are coming up through the system this season on offense, while in contrast, they have a stockpile of pitching prospects, some of whom won’t be on the big league club in the immediate future and can be valuable trade pieces.
The Pirates made only one trade, overpaying for first baseman Spencer Horwitz, who should be a decent big-league hitter but is unproven, primarily, and lacks power. Besides resigning McCutchen, they signed 37-year-old Tommy Pham to help the outfield.
This once again leaves the Pirates relying on production from Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski. Endy Rodriguez has a bright future, and Joey Bart and Horwitz (when he returns and gets comfortable off of wrist surgery) should provide a spark in some capacity. However, this will not be enough support behind a consistent Bryan Reynolds and a dangerous but strikeout-prone Oneil Cruz.
Management made the dangerous assumption this offseason that the starting pitching would be elite and that by well-restructuring the bullpen’s depth, they would win more of the close games that fell out of their grasp last season.
This is part of the Pirates’ plan to “win in the margins,” as Manager Derek Shelton put it.
With the epidemic of pitchers throwing harder and getting hurt more than ever, the Pirates’ young rotation and bullpen are not an exception to this unfortunate issue in Major League Baseball. When or if Jared Jones returns in limbo, 1-2 more bad arm injuries to key guys in a 162-game season could create serious question marks for what needs to be the strength of the team.
The Pirates’ philosophy from past success remains, but unfortunately for them, the game has changed a lot since 2013, and I don’t see a 2013-like run in 2025.
Record prediction: 75-87 (4th in the NL Central)
Darren Yuvan
Well, the Bucs are getting hit with injuries to their rotation, and as Peyton mentioned, we’re not all that far from a former strength becoming a potential weakness. Paul Skenes will be great, but Mitch Keller is your only other guaranteed reliable starter left following the Jared Jones injury. Everyone else has questions.
The bullpen is once again light and is depending on David Bednar to return to form. I’m not sure if that’s much of a confidence-inducing bet. He had an ERA over 10.00 in Spring Training and has looked worse this spring than he did last year. After a couple inevitable in-season injuries, both the rotation and the bullpen could be looking really rough outside of Skenes.
That’s to say nothing of the batting order. When an injured Spencer Horwitz is the prize hitting acquistion of the offseason for a team that struggles to put up runs, you know you have a problem.
If everything goes right, the Bucs could push for .500. If only a few things go wrong, the season could devolve into a disaster. Let’s call it a wash and the Bucs once again come in at 76-86 (4th in the NL Central).
Jaiman White
The NL Central is one of the worst divisions in baseball this year, so the crown is certainly up for grabs. This is one of those years where an 80-85 win team, could run away with the division title as the competition is just not as stiff as it was in years past.
That being said, the Pirates still only won 76 games last year, and came in last in the division. Where are they going to get 9 more wins from? Certainly the rotations is one of the best in baseball, with Skenes, Jones, and Keller all performing like potential all-stars. Jared Jones will be sidelined for six weeks though, which is a killer for this group’s production.
The offense hasn’t gotten much better, but I don’t think it got any worst either. Oneil Cruz should finally have that breakout year we’ve been waiting on, and Ke’Bryan Hayes has switched things up at the plate hoping for better results. Even still though, there’s just not any real elite hitters on this squad, outside of Bryan Reynolds, and I’d say he’s borderline elite… but still an All-Star.
I think this team is going to deal with the same performance issues it had last year. Not enough offense, good pitching, but Jones will certainly be missed for those six weeks that he’s out, and Bubba Chandler could be a rookie of the year when he’s called up in May or June. A full season of Skenes and Keller is promising though, so I see the Pirates buying three more wins from last year.
Pirates record: 79-83 (4th in NL Central)
Austin Bechtold
Paul Skenes will produce one of the best seasons in baseball history with a 1.86 ERA, 185 innings, and over 200 strikeouts. Despite this, it won’t be enough to push the Pirates into the playoffs.
I worry about the lineup, especially the bottom third, and bullpen to feel confident enough to predict a winning season after picking 85 wins last season. Jared Jones being out until at least June hurts and David Bednar had a shaky spring. What will happen with Ke’Bryan Hayes, Henry Davis, and Jack Suwinski? There are way too many questions than answers.
The division is winnable but I unfortunately don’t think Skenes’ magic is good enough yet. It’s an improved season, but not a good enough one to take a big step and compete in this short window with Skenes.
Pirates record: 78-84
Jeremy Brener
The Pirates have been stuck on 76 wins for the past two years, which isn’t worth a playoff spot in the National League.
In order to get past that mark, they are going to need to find ways to score runs. If Paul Skenes and the talented pitching staff can get even a little bit of run support, it could go a very long way.
Spencer Horwitz is a possible solution to the team’s hitting woes, but his wrist injury could keep him out early in the year.
Ultimately, the Pirates have the pieces to be better in 2025, but they are still far away from truly being taken seriously as a contender.
Record prediction: 80-82 (3rd in NL Central)