It’s time to make an honest assessment of the third baseman
It’s time to have an honest conversation about Ke’Bryan Hayes, because time could be running out to rebound his career and his time in a Bucco uniform.
In the shortened 2020 season, Hayes looked like the next best thing since the prime of Andrew McCutchen when he received the call to the show, exceeding the hype around him. In a small sample size of 24 games, Hayes hit .376 and had an OPS of 1.124 with 5 home runs. He looked like the only shining light that would one day bring the Pirates out of a gloomy rebuild.
But ever since, despite his consistent gold glove at the hot corner, his offensive production has been highly disappointing. His overall 2023 offensive numbers were solid, along with his well-earned first Gold Glove Award, but the offensive production came mainly in the second half of the season. Remembering the hype around Hayes when he first came up and how he performed (yes, it was short but incredibly inspiring), hitting .271 with 15 homers and a .762 OPS is about the least one would expect from one the supposed centerpieces of the franchise at a position that must provide offense for most teams to win.
Whether one believes his lack of offensive output on the field is due to him not being an elite hitter or because he has rarely been healthy, the results are what they are. Considering how much this team relies on him to compete, that cannot continue.
Hayes has been plagued by a chronic back issue in the prime years of his career, as he has never eclipsed 140 games played in a season. Last week, he said he felt good and that his offseason training had allowed him to manage his back issue, but he’ll never feel 100%.
He may get through this season injury-free and somewhat productive. But the Pirates have him extended for four more years after 2025. No one has a time machine, but it’s hard to see Hayes being a consistent backbone for this team as he ages. This chronic back issue is hard enough as it is in his 20s; it won’t get any easier the more wear and tear occurs throughout these long seasons, no matter the training he puts into maintaining his injury.
Hayes has always had one thing going for him for better or worse: his primary mentor and father, former big leaguer Charlie Hayes. Charlie has always had his son’s back. When Hayes first signed that 8-year, $70 million contract, we all thought how lucky the Pirates were that Hayes would take what seemed like such a bargain for what he would eventually be worth to be the cornerstone of the franchise that drafted him in the first round in 2015. But with Hayes’ body already showing signs of decline at the time and his continued IL stints ever since, taking the money and running with it was undoubtedly the wise option for him and his family because no one would be offering him any long-term contract today, or possibly ever again.
It seems unlikely that Hayes signed the contract primarily because he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh long-term. For a while, it feels like Hayes hasn’t been happy here, and his lack of hustle and focus at times (I could be harsh, but the sunflower seed incident is glued explicitly in my brain) is not what you would expect.
The Pirates should watch Hayes closely and evaluate what to do with him long-term. His glove will always be extremely valuable, but with how this offense has been for several years, many would rather see prime Pedro Alvarez throwing the ball into the third row of the first base line if it meant more power and production.
If Ke’Bryan Hayes can produce close to what he did in 2023, selling high next offseason or at the Trade Deadline (if the season is not going well) would not be crazy. The Pirates should at least explore the market because they would benefit from acquiring players with higher-hit tools at all levels of the organization. Many high-payroll teams would roll out the red carpet to bring in a great glove with a chance to produce average to above-average offensive numbers.
But again, it’s hard to see Hayes being consistently available in the future. And the Pirates cannot afford a centerpiece of the lineup, a guy they have invested a lot in for their standards, to be average at best at the plate and constantly on and off the IL, no matter how great his defense is.