Steelers Film Room: Russell Wilson is more like Justin Fields than fans want to admit

Mike Tomlin is set to give the veteran quarterback the keys to the offense, but are we sure the veteran isn’t cooked?

I’d like to think I’m a reasonable fan. Typically, I don’t get too high or too low on the goings-on of a season. I can admit when an opposing team plays better than the Steelers and when the Steelers have shortcomings they have to work on to overcome. I like to look at the “how” and “why” behind the game. Maybe that’s the benefit of seeing your favorite team reach the mountaintop and win two out of three times while you’re a teenager. As a Steelers fan, I have a lot to be grateful for.

I say all that because when I hear the way a lot of fans talk about Russell Wilson, I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. I don’t have anything against Wilson personally. I live in Seattle, I’ve seen a lot of his career up close, including all the charitable things he does for the surrounding communities of wherever he is playing. In fact, he was on my shortlist of realistic QB options the Steelers had heading into an offseason of uncertainty. A trade-up in the draft for a QB seemed unrealistic at the time based on the market. That ultimately ended up being the case. If you watched the Giants attempts to trade up on Hard Knocks, you get an idea of how deadset all of the teams picking at the top were about staying put. So when it came to free agents or the trade market, full transparency, Fields was my top choice.

So, no, I won’t deny there is a level of bias here from me. But what I’m going to try to get across here today is the “why” behind this opinion.

I’m not going to argue about the strategy of going with the young guy over the aging vet.

I don’t believe wins are a quarterback stat. Football truly takes all 11 guys. You need no better example of that than Josh Allen losing a playoff game where he gave his team the lead with 13 seconds left. So, no, this won’t be an argument about the momentum or the locker room vibes of switching quarterbacks at 4-2 either.

I also agree that Fields is a flawed prospect. He still holds onto the ball too long. Too often that seems to be because he is missing a read. He’s cut down on his interceptions, but he still fumbles too much. Fields’ mobility is both his weapon and his curse as he can sometimes run himself into unnecessary sacks. Overall, Fields numbers have improved, but they certainly aren’t blowing anyone away and we still can see fits of inaccuracy on a handful of throws a game. These are fair critiques of Justin Fields. I think we can all agree that so far the Justin Fields experience can be described as this: Frustrating periods of lethargic and out-of-sync football, with just enough flashes of brilliance sprinkled in to have the team 4-2 in a series of close games. Does that sound like a fair assessment?

Acknowledging that, I believe a lot of people look at Wilson’s resume — Super Bowl winner, 26 touchdowns and only 8 interceptions in 2023 — and believe that Wilson is something that he’s not. Wilson’s been portrayed as the savvy vet. His arm and ability to read a defense are what set him apart from Fields. At least that’s the main argument for the switch, right? Fields clearly has the more dynamic legs, but Russ is the experienced mind and the arm.

My problem is, I don’t think Russ has ever played like that. When I look at Russell Wilson’s career and his playstyle, as a passer he reminds me of Justin Fields. Wilson’s career is the best-case scenario for someone who plays like the two of them play. And especially in the last 3.5 years, Russ has played a lot more like Fields did in Chicago than like a former Super Bowl champion. Don’t just take it from me, listen to Seahawks fan Mina Kimes or the Ringer’s Danny Kelly who summarized the Wilson-era Seahawks gameday experience, “I was mad the whole game until they won.”

That sounds a lot like the Steelers in recent years, and certainly with Fields. So my working thesis here is this: Russ and Fields are too similar as passers to justify the switch.

The plays we will be looking at come from the 2023. I think that a player’s most recent season is the best to look at because it will give you a closer idea of the player they are right now. And Russ’ 2022 tape is so bad, and that team so dysfunctional, that we’ll just throw it out for this exercise. Beside, people have been citing his 2023 stats, so we should look at how he was playing.

Let’s dive in.

Five plays that might remind you of a certain someone…

The Broncos dropped their Week 1 matchup against the Raiders last year 17-16. One complaint about both Fields and Russell Wilson is their refusal and/or inability to target the middle of the field.

On the play above, the Broncos are running the “Dagger” concept, which is a fundamental passing concept in modern offenses. To run a dagger, one or more players — in this instance, Denver has two players attack and clear out both seams — while another player runs a longer developing route that breaks to the space in the middle of the field the defense will have hopefully vacated to protect the go routes.

In the play above, this has to be Wilson’s only read. It’s 3rd & 10. The players going deep are rarely targeted because defenses are not going to let you go downfield so easily. The other routes are checkdowns near the line of scrimmage. Wilson’s primary read is Sutton running the dig route at the sticks. Sutton gets open and Russ appears to be looking right at him. But for whatever reason, he doesn’t pull the trigger. To make matters worse, the Broncos provide Wilson with a clean pocket, but he starts to feel ghosts. He scrambles out of the clean pocket, runs into his own lineman, and then runs into pressure for the sack.

That right there is pretty damning, but it’s just one play. I can assure you, though, it isn’t an isolated incident.

In the clip above, the Broncos are up the following week against the Commanders 21-3 with 6:46 left in the second quarter. Again watch Sutton, this time on the left of the formation — get open on the late dig route. Russ has some pressure, but he doesn’t see Sutton or see Sutton. The Broncos didn’t give him many receiving options on this play because they needed extra blockers for their shakey line — sound familiar? He needs to be reading this play and looking for Sutton. He panics at the first sign of pressure, takes a bad angle that puts him under worse pressure, and fumbles away the ball. The Broncos go on to lose this game 35-33 and fall to 0-2.

Down three early to Kansas City in Week 4, Russ throws a costly interception by failing to read the coverage or the outside corner’s leverage. The offense has called the perfect route on the outside to pick up the first down, but Russ doesn’t see it and is picked off by the underneath linebacker who is just watching his eyes. Broncos lose 19-8 and drop to 1-5.

That was the lowest point for Denver in 2023. A horrific start had them dead in the water before November. But then something weird happened. Denver went on a five-game winning streak to pull to 6-5. It should be noted that during that streak the Broncos averaged 23.4 points per game and had an average point differential of 7.4, winning two different games by two points and another by a single point. Sound familiar? That’s been the same recipe for Pittsburgh in recent years and what Fields has executed thus far this season.

With Denver back above .500 and in the middle of the wild card race, they headed down to Houston to square off against a Texans team that was exceeding expectations and had a promising new rookie under the helm in C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs wound up losing their matchup against Green Bay that week, dropping to 8-4. With a win, Denver would have been just one game back in the race for the AFC West. These are the moments where Russ’ veteran experience is supposed to come into effect.

In reality, Russ had his worst game of the season, throwing three second-half interceptions in a 22-17 loss.

The first one was inexcusable. This is a rookie-level blunder. The Broncos are down six, Denver starts at their own 20 after a Houston punt results in a touchback. I’m not sure if what happens next is because Russ doesn’t execute proper footwork or some other cause, but you can see him set his feet here and get stiff. He doesn’t step towards his target and it looks like he attempts to drive this ball purely with his arm. He doesn’t get any velocity on it and throws it low, putting it in the perfect position for the defender to jump the route. The turnover starts the Texans’ next drive in the red zone, and they capitalize with a touchdown and push the lead to two scores.

Denver would score a touchdown in response to pull it back close, but Wilson throws interceptions on the Broncos’ final two drives to seal their fate.

Russ rightfully gets a lot of credit for his deep passing. During his prime, he would always seem to find a way to hit one or two just when Seattle needed it. The problem is, those throws are among the lowest percentage in the game, and while you take the touchdowns and highlights, you can’t forget they come with risk when they don’t work out.

In the clip above, I don’t have a problem with Russ attempting the throw. Houston comes out with two-high safety and they don’t rotate post snap. Russ, similarly to Fields, is asked to pick a side and work the concepts. On the left, a dig route from Mims gets open late, but we know Russ has struggled with those. Besides, Sutton is the receiver he had the best chemistry with, so Russ picks the right side. Denver is running two double moves on that side. Sutton wins, and is in perfect position to not only split the safties but beat them over the top with an accurate throw. Russ throws it more towards the seam and underthrows it, allowing the defender to undercut Sutton and make the pick. Bad throw. What makes it worse, is Jerry Jeudy absolutely ethers his defender with his double move and was running free down the sideline as cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. turned his back to the sideline and pursued Sutton to make the interception. Russ doesn’t see it.

Despite that turnover, Denver wasn’t out of the game. The Broncos got the ball with 4:36 left on the clock and wound up driving the ball into the red zone. With 16 seconds left in the game and no timeouts, they faced a 3rd & Goal from the eight-yard line. Again, this is the moment when the savvy veteran, the Super Bowl-winning hero is supposed to come in the clutch. For most of Russ’ career, these were the type of games where he’d snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Texan’s edge Jonathan Greenard fires of the line and gets leverage on the left tackle, but Russ could have alleviated some of the pressure by climbing the pocket. Instead, he spins into pressure. To Wilson’s credit, he breaks the tackle. To his discredit, he wildly throws a duck with no juice and it ends the game. Could you imagine the online discourse if this had been a Fields play?

As I looked at Russ’s 26 touchdowns, I wanted to see how he got them. Here’s what I found: five were designed screens or checkdowns at the line of scrimmage or within a yard or two of it; five were on busted coverage plays where his target was wide open with no defender within five yards of them; one was a Hail Mary that was bobbled between multiple players in front of the endzone before bouncing into the hands of a Bronco who fell into the endzone; six were 50-50 balls that involved a contested catch. Most of his remaining touchdowns involved red zone scramble drills where Russ left the pocket and scrambled around until throwing to the back corner of the endzone.

These are just five plays, but if we had all day, I could show you countless of plays like these. Russ has always heavily improvised, and as he gets older his tricks are working less and less often. If we’re being objective, I think we can concede that these two quarterbacks play very similarly, with many of the same weaknesses, as well as similar highlights. The difference? Fields can also create chunk plays on the ground. With the Steelers offensive line injured and inconsistent, I tend to value that more.

Again my point has been since the spring: if the players play the same, play the 25-year-old, more explosive player who is able to continue developing. Old dog’s don’t often learn new tricks after all. Wilson’s 527 career sacks, many of his own creation. That’s the fifth-most all-time. He could pass Ben Roethlisberger for third all-time with 27 more sacks. Ben reached that figure in over 249 career games. Wilson has played 188 heading into Sunday.

That isn’t to say Wilson can’t win or the Steelers can’t make the playoffs with him. His career is filled with ugly one-score wins that are what we’ve grown accustomed to in Pittsburgh. But if Russ is going to continue to win ugly, one-score games, you gotta ask — Why exactly are we moving on from Fields?